College Basketball Picks

The Cyclones led the country in adjusted defensive efficiency last year but their middling offense led to a Sweet 16 exit. This season they've taken a small step back on defense (18th in adjusted defense) but rank third in adjusted offense while playing at a speedy tempo. Iowa State is seventh in the country in scoring (89.7 ppg), 16th in 2-point percentage (59.4%), and sixth in TO rate (13.1%). That last number is particularly important because the Bears have been heavily reliant on forcing turnovers on defense. If they can't cause havoc with their ball pressure they get burned with Quad 1 opponents shooting 58.3% from inside the arc against them. That said, the Bears are sixth in the country in adjusted offense and also have plenty of firepower with all five of their starters averaging double digits in points. 

The Bruins boast the top scoring defense in the Big Ten, allowing teams to post just 58.7 points per game, which ranks sixth in the nation. KenPom ranks them fourth in defensive efficiency, as they hold opponents to 40.1% shooting from the field, and 29.6% from beyond the arc. The Cornhuskers can play some defense too. KenPom has them 17th in defensive efficiency, and Nebraska’s 65.1 points per game allowed ranks fourth in the Big Ten, and inside college basketball’s Top 40. Offensively, these teams are evenly matched, and aren’t exactly smooth operators at that end of the court. Both UCLA and Nebraska ranks outside the Top 10 in Big Ten scoring and in field goal percentage. UCLA has an Under record of 10-3-0, while Nebraska has seen the Under cash in eight of 13 games this year, including five of its last six.

The San Diego State Aztecs are traveling over 1,000 miles for this game against Boise State, and haven’t played since that collapse against Utah State on December 28. And while the Aztecs clearly have the better resume so far, this will be just their second road game of the season. The other was a 22-point win over a Fresno State team that is currently a Quad 4 team. Boise State’s size and aggressiveness going to the rim will be a problem for the Aztecs. Their offensive rebound rate of 40% over the last five games coincides with a shift towards crashing the glass, and that will lead to plenty of second-chance opportunities and trips to the line. That will negate the San Diego State defensive prowess, and allow the Broncos to cover the spread at home.

Oklahoma is 27th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and has scored 79+ points in nine of its last 11 games. The Tide play at a blazing-fast pace (second in raw tempo) and don't give a damn about playing defense. They are 334th in the country in opponent TO rate and 272nd in scoring defense (77.2 ppg). The Tide are coming off a game where they gave up 82 points to South Dakota State and two weeks ago they surrendered 90 points to a terrible North Dakota squad. They've also allowed 79+ points to six of seven high-major opponents they've faced. The Sooners are 26th in the country in transition efficiency per ShotQualityBets so they should thrive against Alabama's up-tempo style.

Dusty May’s emergence in Ann Arbor has the Wolverines ranked just outside KenPom’s Top 10 at 11th overall. They’re a quality team on both sides of the ball, ranking 25th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency, making them a threat in the Big Ten and beyond. They get a chance to prove themselves tonight against a USC Trojans team that has won four games in a row. Eric Musselman’s arrival via Fayetteville has also breathed life into this program, although perhaps not to the extent May has done in Ann Arbor.