College Basketball Picks & Best March Madness Bets Today

The Blue Raiders rank in the 300s in FT rate, 277th in 3-pt%, and well outside the Top 100 in turnover rate, offensive rebounding, and eFG%. Their defense is solid on the perimeter, but opponents score more than 41% of their points near the rim. Middle Tennessee won’t be able to stop the likes of Bash Wieland, Frank Champion, and Trey Bonham from getting to the rim or to the charity stripe. Throw in Honor Huff making nearly 43% of his 245 long-range efforts on the season — including 42.9% away from home — and it’s hard to see how the Blue Raiders keep up behind an inconsistent offense.

My thinking here is that the Shockers’ offense will likely struggle more than the Cowboys’ O-Unit will. Oklahoma State plays in one of the toughest offensive conferences and boasts a Top 80 KenPom stop unit. Nothing Wichita State does on offense is spectacular enough on the road, and the same can be said about the Oklahoma State O-Unit at home. The Shockers will rely on its D-Unit and have given up fewer than 68 points in three of five. The Cowboys will score, but not enough to get near the game total. I’m betting on the Under. 

Arkansas State came up just short of winning the Sun Belt Conference title and making it to the NCAA Tournament, but the Red Wolves will still be looking to get the most of their first taste of national postseason basketball since 1999. This is a relatively talented team that plays tough on defense despite an entertaining, up-tempo approach. The St. Louis Billikens have been an Under machine all year long, only hitting the Over nine times in 31 games. They’re pretty average on both offense and defense, play at a generally normal pace, and simply aren’t the kind of team you expect to see extremely high totals associated with. Outside of some very short-term trends, there’s no reason for this total to be as high as it is. I’m backing the Under.

Where is this line coming from? UNC is one of the hottest teams in the country, ranking 14th in Haslametrics’ Momentum metric while going 8-1 ATS in its last nine games. There’s also shade being thrown the Mountain West’s way as the conference has been a tournament liability. The Aztecs have been the exception to that rule, standing alone as a successful MWC team in the Big Dance. Their stellar defense should at least keep things close against a UNC team that benefitted from a weak ACC schedule en route to the recent hot streak. There’s a chance San Diego State’s free-throw shooting woes (66.6%) bite them in a close game, but I’ll still back the Aztecs against the spread, especially with the return of Gwath.

The Broncos make 10 triples per game on 37% shooting from downtown, but my thinking is UC Riverside scores well enough to cover the spread against Santa Clara. We’ll see two squads who like to fire away from downtown, and both groups are good at it. Both sides rebound well, but neither defends as well as they score. The big shooting from both squads and the bricks that go with volume shooting should lead to an entertaining clash. Riverside was 10-7 ATS as the away side, and I’m betting they cover the spread tonight.

The home-court advantage should mean something to the Cardinal, who have the third-best cover rate in front of their fans. At 11-7-0 ATS, I like Stanford staying in its own barn and awaiting the winner of St. Bonaventure or Kent State for Round 2 action.

American is reliant on the 3-pointer, with more than 37% of its offense coming from distance. Mount Saint Mary’s defense protects the perimeter, allowing just 31.4% success from outside. The Mountaineers are also very sound on the glass, so don’t expect any second chance looks from American University. With this game taking the teams to Dayton on a short turnaround, I’m leaning toward Mount Saint Mary’s and its stellar results away from home. The Mountaineers are a collective 14-3 ATS outside of Emmitsburg. Game models basically call for a one-point game with the winner varying from forecast to forecast. That’s good enough for me when getting +2.5 with the Mountaineers.

The Northern Iowa Panthers stumbled into the NIT as well, dropping three of their final four — highlighted by a 64-63 loss to Valparaiso in their conference tournament opener. Seventh in the Missouri Valley in scoring, points have been even harder to come by of late, as the Panthers have been held to 63 or fewer in their three losses. The level of play favors the team with the harder slate, and SMU put up points in one of the premier conferences, shooting 48.1% from the field and 37.6% from deep. UNI is 181st in field goal shooting defense and an even more distant 293rd in defending the arc. Take the Mustangs to roll in Round 1.

The Musketeers are peaking at the right time and had won seven in a row before losing a heartbreaker to the Golden Eagles in the Big East quarterfinal. The Longhorns pulled off a couple of upset victories in the SEC tourney but their defense has been awful. They were 14th in the SEC in adjusted defense during conference play and have surrendered more than 80 points in eight of their last 11 games. They'll have a tough time slowing down Xavier who has one of the most experienced lineups in the country and a devastating inside-outside duo in Zach Freemantle (17.3 ppg, 52.6 FG%) and Ryan Conwell (16.8 ppg, 41.8 3PT%). The fact that this game is taking place at Dayton, just an hour away from the  Musketeers' campus is just icing on the cake.

Creighton comes into this game with a turnover rate of 18%. That's not good. Starting PG Steven Ashworth has a turnover rate of 22%. That's not good either. It's particularly problematic when facing the ACC Defensive Player of the Year in Chucky Hepburn. He'll come into this game with 12 steals over his last four contests. Each of these teams was egregiously seeded. Even more of an issue for Creighton is that this could feel like a home game for their opponent, who has to only travel 70 miles east. This is another shocking decision by the tournament committee. The Jays have a massive advantage in the frontcourt, but Louisville has a pretty big one in the backcourt. I'll lean on that in March. My projections made this game roughly a 4-point win for Louisville, so I'd play the moneyline price down to -160.

The Badgers have a bad taste in their mouths after letting the Big Ten title slip away in the closing minutes. Wisconsin is a handful offensively but also flexed its defensive muscle during the conference tournament. The Grizzlies aren’t great defensively and will have a really hard time dealing with all the Badgers’ screening and movement. The Grizzlies struggle to match up in isolation sets and Wisconsin thrives on creating those one-on-one options. Game models call for as high as a 19-point win from Wisconsin.

These aren't the Badgers of the past who played at a snail's pace and couldn't win with margin. Wisconsin went 13-7 in Big Ten play with seven of those wins coming by more than 15 points. Wisconsin is 13th in the country in adjusted offense while ranking 67th in eFG% (53.6%). They'll score at will against a Montana squad that is 250th in adjusted defense and 270th in opponent eFG% (53.1%). The Grizzlies are better on offense where they rank 98th in adjusted efficiency but that won't be good enough against a Badgers squad that ranks 27th in adjusted defense. Montana is 25th in efficiency at attacking the rim but Wisconsin allows the second-fewest shots at the rim. The Grizzlies were destroyed when they played quality foes earlier this season. In three games against teams in the Top 50 at KenPom, they lost by 31 points to Oregon, 35 points to Tennessee, and 12 points to Utah State.

BYU caught on fire down the stretch winning nine games in a row (included upset victories against Kansas, Arizona, and Iowa State) before falling to Houston in the Big 12 semifinal. This will be a battle between a BYU attack that ranks 11th in the country in adjusted offense and a Rams squad that is 23rd in adjusted defense. While the Rams hold foes to 30.6% shooting from deep they sit outside the Top 250 in Open 3 Rate so regression could hit against a BYU squad that is 33rd in 3PT% (37.1%). This is a also tough scheduling spot for the Rams who won the A-10 title on Sunday after playing three games in three days. The Cougars haven't played since Friday and woll be well-rested. Most importantly this game will take place at Ball Arena in Denver and the Cougars are used to playing at altitude in Provo. They should thrive at the elevation in the Mile High City and will run the Rams off the floor.  

Two of the slowest teams in the country — ranking No. 32 and No. 19, respectively — Wofford and Tennessee should shorten this game to about only 60 possessions per team. At that pace, the Vols would need to average 0.32 points more per possession than the Terriers to cover this hefty spread, and Wofford’s offense is too efficient for that steep ask to become a reality. Wofford chucks 3s on 47.7% of its FGAs, making an above-average 34.5% of those. This shortened game favors the underdog covering a massive spread, as does Tennessee’s defensive design. While that worked against a bad offense last year, it should give a strong offense some life this week.

Arkansas is down standout Adou Thiero for the Round of 64 but has countered that by going big and tightening up on defense. Kansas has been one of the biggest disappointments of the season and backs into the bracket with a 4-5 record in its last nine, including a flop in the Big 12 tournament. The Razorbacks, on the other hand, are playing their best basketball at the right time and own a 9-3-1 ATS mark in their last 13 games. Game models give KU the nod, but the margins are very tight with projections as low as Kansas winning by one point.

It's fitting that two of the biggest disappointments in college basketball this year are facing off in the first round. The Jayhawks came into this season as championship favorites and after a fast start have fallen off. They are 7-8 SU and 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games. However, the Razorbacks played hard down the stretch, going 8-5 SU and 10-3 ATS in their last 13. While they'll be without leading scorer Adou Thiero for at least another week, they've gone with a bigger lineup in his absence which has paid dividends. With Trevon Brazile, Zvonimir Ivisic, and Jonas Aidoo all getting significant playing time, the Razorbacks rebounding and interior defense have been significantly better. They be able to slow down Hunter Dickinson and get the cover here.

This is a style mismatch that favors the underdog. Drake is the scary mid-major in the West. Wins over power conference teams, Miami, Vandy, Kansas State. Defensive grinder. Slow pace, good rebounding. Could really throw Missouri in sand. Tigers want to run, transition, score points off turnovers. Drake doesn’t turn it over, is 1^st in fastbreak points against. They keep it close and maybe even send Mizzou packing. 

The Mavericks have a big team — for the Summit League — and have done well on the glass, but if we look at the matchup with Iowa State, they were absolutely bullied on the boards 36-22, including 10 offensive rebounds from the Cyclones. I see a similar result in this Round of 64 pairing. Overall, he’s surpassed 7.5 rebounds in 23 of his last 31 games (74% hit rate), and Ejiofor’s rebounding totals have bounced between 7.5 (with the Over juiced to -150) to 8.5 boards over the last six contests. Player projections for Ejiofor range between 8.4 rebounds to 9.7, with my number coming out just north of nine boards from the junior forward. That’s more than enough to top his rebounding expectations on Thursday.

Toppin is averaging more than 23 points per game in his last 11 outings and his illness-induced 11 points against Arizona was just the third time he’s failed to crack 21 points in that stretch. His player projections versus UNC Wilmington are a little tough to gauge, considering the unknowns of McMillian and Williams. With that in mind, Toppin’s role in the offense could explode even more. Toppin does his best work starting as the high screener at the top of the key (TTU ranks 45^th in P&R sets) and finding scoring space either slipping inside or stepping out as a shooter. He led the Big 12 in points in the paint (11.9 PITP) and faces a UNCW defense giving up almost 29 points in the key per contest.

Maryland is a fantastic team, but Grand Canyon is not your usual Round of 64 opponent. This program got a taste of Big Dance glory last season and has better scoring depth, with Tyon Grant-Foster and JaKobe Coles presenting a potent one-two punch. The Antelopes can get up and down the floor and crash the glass, which will challenge the Terps’ talent frontcourt, and are right there with Maryland in terms of defensive metrics. Now, I don’t know if GCU can keep it up against the Terps’ surplus of scoring options (five UM players average 12+ points per game), but I do think this will be close in the opening 20 minutes. The Antelopes rank 29^th in first half scoring, boasting an average 1H margin of +9.5 on the season.

The Arizona Wildcats run the 54th-fastest pace in the land and score almost 82 points per game, powered by the fastbreak (14 FBPTS). The Akron Zips live up to their nickname, ranked 16th in tempo and scoring 84 points per game, with 13 of those on fastbreak points. Akron can also hit from distance, averaging almost 11 3-pointers per game.

Akron’s offense is a handful. The Zips play at a fast pace and thrive in the open court while also making teams pay from beyond the arc. Akron averages almost 11 triples on 36.6% shooting. Arizona looks much stronger on paper, but the Wildcats have their faults, especially when it comes to perimeter shooting. Arizona isn’t great from deep, hitting less than seven 3-pointers per game.  If the Zips get hot from outside, the Wildcats may not be able to go tit-for-tat. Akron might not knock off this college blue blood in the Round of 64 but game projections range from Arizona by 16 to as short as a five-point game. My number comes out to a Wildcats win by 12. 

Stock is down on the Huskies after an inconsistent season and exit in the Big East tournament. The same can’t be said for the SEC schools, even if Oklahoma hasn’t done much since winning the Battle 4 Atlantis back in November. The Sooners will have trouble inside against UConn’s size in the halfcourt. They gave up 33 points in the paint per outing (246th) and sit 322nd in 2-point field-goal percentage on defense. Connecticut is dominant inside, putting up 35.8 PITP per outing and can crash the offensive glass for putbacks.

With 12/5 seed upsets now a narrative that the public is well aware of, bettors sometimes come in hard on No. 12 seeds which leads to more favorable lines for the favorite. This is a brutal travel spot for the Flames who fly from Virginia to Seattle for a 10 p.m. ET tipoff while the Ducks are already on the West Coast. The Flames live and die at the arc, ranking fifth in the country in 3-point percentage (39.5%) and third in 3-point defense (28%). However, the Ducks limit foes to a 31.6 3PT% and coach Dana Altman will be able to gameplan against a one-dimensional attack. Expect Oregon to rely on center Nate Bittle and their imposing frontcourt against a  Liberty squad that has one of the smallest lineups in the country.